Monthly Problem-Driven Consumption Index

 

PDCI Predicts Continuation of Current in Spending for February

The Problem-Driven Consumption Index (PDCI), a leading indicator of consumer spending, slightly increased in February, measuring 138.9, up from 136.7 in January. This data suggests there will be a small increase in non-seasonally adjusted spending for February relative to January. The increased PDCI score stems from an increase in the amount consumers were planning to spend to solve their problems and in the number of problems consumers were planning to solve.

 Feb_17_PDCI_Spending

The PDCI is down 10% relative to February 2016, the decrease is relative to the all-time highs observed in the PDCI for this time last year. This year-over-year decrease is driven by a decrease in the amount consumers plan to spend solving problems, and a decrease in the number of problems consumers are planning to solve.

Feb_17_PDCI

The PDCI is derived from responses to the Consumer Problem Survey (CPS). The PDCI is based on two primary components: the quantity of problems consumers are seeking to solve, and the amount consumers plan to spend solving them. The CPS is a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample that measures consumers’ problems that require market solutions, thereby allowing the researchers to track the quantity of, severity of, and the types of problems that consumers experience. Data is population weighted to eliminate survey completion bias. The PDCI calculated based on the results is scaled by the CPI-U. Because problem recognition usually precedes purchases, the data from the CPS provides an unprecedented view of future consumption and spending. To learn more about the CPS, watch our video HERE.

Chris Hydock

Assistant Professor of Research

Chris Hydock is an Assistant Professor of Research and the Research Director of the Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research. He earned a PhD in Cognitive Neuroscience from the Psychology Department at George Washington University and BA in Psychology at the University of Colorado, Boulder.  In addition to conducting research on consumer behavior, he is helping to further develop the behavioral research lab for the McDonough School of Business.

Kurt Carlson

Director of the Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research and Professor of Marketing, McDonough School of Business

Professor Carlson teaches courses on marketing research, consumer behavior, and marketing management. He is also the director of the Georgetown McDonough Behavioral Research Lab. He received his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the University of Wisconsin and his Ph.D. in marketing from Cornell University. Prior to joining Georgetown, Carlson was on the faculty of the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University from 2001 to 2009.

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